Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates edged lower again yesterday. That extended the run without a rise to more than a week.
And that may not be the end of it. Because it’s looking as if mortgage rates might nudge lower again today.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||3.13%||3.135%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||2.406%||2.524%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||2.875%||2.967%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||1.967%||2.193%||-0.01%|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.896%||3.558%||-0.04%|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.681%||3.267%||-0.03%|
|5 year ARM FHA||2.5%||3.201%||-0.01%|
|30 year fixed VA||2.5%||2.674%||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed VA||2.343%||2.665%||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM VA||2.5%||2.379%||-0.01%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
The pressure to lock urgently has been off so far in April. And, this month, mortgage rates have been gently drifting down. The trouble is, nobody can be sure for how long this happy situation will last: days, weeks … who knows?
But few experts think the current situation is the start of a new downward trend. Many think it’s just a lull. And that the upward trend will resume sometime soon.
So, right now, you may not have to scramble for the phone to lock your rate. But, assuming most experts are right, you should be ready to do so. Because, sometime soon, the limited gains you’ve made by floating could evaporate very quickly.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasurys edged lower to 1.63% from 1.66% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
- Major stock indexes were mostly higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
- Oil prices edged up to $59.21 from $59.14 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.)
- Gold prices nudged up to $1,756 from $1,738 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Inched lower to 62 from 63 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to fall modestly. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change
So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
Today and soon
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve published the minutes of the last meeting of its monetary policy committee. If those had shown the thinking of its members was moving toward higher interest rates and a tapering of its asset purchases, we might have seen mayhem in markets.
But the minutes didn’t. They showed a fairly united committee, committed to maintaining support for markets. Nothing to see here. This morning’s Guardian quoted Avatrade analyst Naeem Aslam:
Traders have finally understood that there will be no early exit from loose monetary policy. The US economy needs to recover fully, and it will be some time before that happens.
— Guardian Online, “FTSE 100 gains after Federal Reserve boosts markets — business live,” April 8, 2021
Recent economic reports suggest that recovery is strongly underway. And that a boom is imminent. That’s why I’m so convinced we’ll see higher mortgage rates ahead. Unless something extraordinary blows the recovery off course, those seem inevitable. Because, historically, a thriving economy pretty much invariably means higher rates.
If you prefer the wisdom of crowds to that of experts, your fellow Americans are similarly gloomy. Fannie Mae yesterday published the results of a consumer survey: “The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 8% to 6%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 47% to 54%.”
For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).
Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.
However, Freddie’s Apr. 8 report puts that weekly average at 3.13% (with 0.7 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 3.18%. In a news release, Freddie noted, “After moving up for seven consecutive weeks, mortgage rates have dropped due to the recent, modest decline of U.S. Treasury yields.”
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rates forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2/21, Q3/21, Q4/21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1/22).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on March 17 and the MBA’s on March 22. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly. Its figures are from Jan. 10 and are looking distinctly stale:
However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.
But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.