January 16, 2021

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Latest updated blog – Starting to trend a bit warmer for Sunday – Nick – KOAM

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Good Saturday evening, everyone. Hopefully, everyone stayed warm as we rang in the New Year on a cold note. Not only that, we ended 2020 and wrapped up 2021 with another wave of freezing rain, sleet and snow for Friday. Just when you though we were done with this parade of storm systems, we had another quick wave sneak in for today with snow chances lasting from early this morning and into the very early evening hours. It was certainly cold enough upstairs and at the surface to support all this wintry weather over the past few days. After we spent all day yesterday in the lower to middle 30s, we only saw early AM highs today around 32 and lows in the upper 20s. Much of our afternoon was spent in the lower 30s once again.

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Like the numbers above showing how we were cold enough at the surface, we had cold air aloft for our Saturday to march on through as light to moderate accumulating snow. Some of the official storm reports we were able to find had snow amounts range between half an inch in Neosho and near an inch (1.3″ to be exact) with the storm report in Lamar.

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If it felt quite busy seeing all these waves parade on through the area over the past several days, we’re beginning to see our weather setup favor a little quiet stretch as we head into a new week. At the surface, we have the main low pressure system spawning rain and t-storms for parts of the Southeast while it’s also grabbing the wave that came through here and helping it move along.

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While the main driver of this wave continues to be the upper-level low centered over St. Louis, it is also marching off to our east. Look at the jet setup to our west. A building upper-level ridge will head our way to keep us quiet and warmer for a portion of next week before we see our next system come out of the Pacific.

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If you aren’t a fan of snow, you were probably thrilled to see that system move on so we can stay quiet and dry tonight. However, with that fresh batch of moisture along with moisture still on the ground and on elevated surfaces from the New Year’s Holiday, we have plenty of moisture in the lower levels interacting with a light breeze and temperatures near the dew point. That will lead to areas of dense fog and possible freezing fog as we work through most of your Sunday morning.

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With dense fog advisories out, you can expect visibilities to drop to an average of 1/4 or less across the region through the overnight and into Sunday morning. Let’s keep this in mind and be careful if we’re going to be out on the road through the night and into Sunday morning. Otherwise, we’ll stay cold with lows ranging in the middle to upper 20s with a light south breeze in place.

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Once the fog burns away between 10 AM and noon on Sunday, we’ll finally have some sunshine back in the forecast to help temperatures out. If we play our cards right, we’ll have everyone near 40 or 41 to start the afternoon out, before we see highs top out in the lower to middle 40s in southeast Kansas and middle to upper 40s for our corners of Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas. That will be nice to have temperatures back above freezing as we wrap up the holiday weekend.

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For Monday and Tuesday, it’s all about that building upper-level ridge out west working in. While we will have cold mornings to start Monday and Tuesday out, we’ll have partly sunny skies aid in the upper-level ridge to keep a little warming trend going. We’ll have highs pushing 50 on Monday and into the middle 50s on Tuesday. However, look below at what lies on the other side of the upcoming ridge.

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Sticking with Doug’s pattern, that is our next storm system on the way in for Wednesday and Thursday. With temperatures in the lower 40s Wednesday morning and highs around 50 under mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday, this system wants to start out as rain chances for us. Those rain chances could sneak in as early as the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday.

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While this wave wants to stick around for much of our Thursday, we’ll keep an eye on it as it wants to track right on top of the region. If this can bring in some additional cold air for Thursday morning, we could have some of this moisture switch to a rain/snow mix for Thursday morning. Once we get past the morning, we’re expecting this to switch back to rain chances for the rest of the day.

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Once we get past this upcoming system, the weekend will start quiet under mostly cloudy skies. It looks like a cool start to the weekend as well with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 and highs in the lower to middle 40s. If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of the month, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

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January 10th-16th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool through the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, then again slight chances by the weekend.

January 17th-23rd:  A cold first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week.  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Rain chances back in by Friday and Saturday.

January 24th-30th:  A mild start with rain on Monday, then turning colder with rain, snow or ice by Tuesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week with snow chances on Thursday.

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