January 21, 2021

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Mortgage and refinance rates today, December 30, 2020

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Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday, and are at or immediately adjacent to their all-time low. These rates have moved so little recently that some lenders may not have bothered adjusting theirs for several days.

Mortgage rates may again be unchanged or barely changed today. They’ve been unresponsive to quite important news announcements recently. But that could change next week.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 30th, 2020)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

ProgramMortgage RateAPR*Change
Conventional 30 year fixed2.75%2.75%Unchanged
Conventional 15 year fixed2.438%2.438%Unchanged
Conventional 5 year ARM3%2.743%Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA2.308%3.284%Unchanged
15 year fixed FHA2.375%3.317%Unchanged
5 year ARM FHA2.5%3.22%Unchanged
30 year fixed VA2.125%2.295%Unchanged
15 year fixed VA2.125%2.445%Unchanged
5 year ARM VA2.5%2.399%Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 30th, 2020)


COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

My instinct is currently to lock if you have a January closing date. Yes, you might miss out on further falls in mortgage rates. But you’re at least as likely to avoid rises.

In the longer term, I think there’s still room for further falls. That’s because I believe that markets are still underestimating the economic damage that the current wave of the pandemic is wreaking.

But January (and especially early in the month) may turn out to be a dangerous time for these rates. And my judgment is that the possible rewards of floating don’t sufficiently outweigh the possible risks to make the gamble worthwhile.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 45 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with about the same time yesterday morning, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuryswas unchanged at 0.94%. (Neutral for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
  • Major stock indexes were higheron opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
  • Oil prices nudged down to $47.85 from $48.11 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
  • Gold priceswere up at $1,887 from$1,884 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index —Fell to 50 from 57 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far they’re looking likely to stay the same or move only a little.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 30th, 2020)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. So expect short-term rises as well as falls. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently appreciably higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today

Once again, mortgage rates are most likely to hold steady today or just inch either side of the neutral line.

Of course, it’s not impossible that bond markets will choose the last two trading days of 2020 to suddenly inject some volatility into the holiday season. But it seems improbable.

Recently

Over the last several months, the overall trend for mortgage rates has clearly been downward. And a new, weekly all-time low has been set on 16 occasions so far this year, according to Freddie Mac. The most recent such record occurred last week — on Dec. 24.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the last quarter of 2020 (Q4/20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21 and Q3/21).

However, note that Fannie’s (released on Dec. 15) and the MBA’s (out Dec. 21) are updated monthly. But Freddie’s are now published quarterly. And its latest was released on Oct. 14. So that’s looking distinctly stale.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages:

ForecasterQ4/20Q1/21Q2/21Q3/21
Fannie Mae2.8%2.7%2.7%2.8%
Freddie Mac3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
MBA2.8%2.9%3.0%3.2%

So predictions vary considerably. You pays yer money …

And another forecast

On Dec. 2, the National Association of Realtors threw its hat into the forecasting ring. It said:

The forecast anticipates mortgage rates will begin slowly going up toward the last half of 2021, reaching 3.4% by the end of the year.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Dec 30th, 2020)

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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