January 22, 2021

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Latest update blog – Staying unsettled for the next few of days – Nick – KOAM

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Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Sure enough, we had our first taste of our first storm system to work into the forecast this week. After a quiet Monday night, we had moisture bring in rain for some and some freezing rain and sleet mixed for some of our northern counties to start the day. As temperatures warmed above freezing across the area after the morning drive, we had the morning round of precipitation come to an end as rain. Even with mostly cloudy skies, the southerly breeze sent us back into the upper 40s and lower 50s for highs this afternoon. While it was nice to have a quick warm front push through, we’re focused on the cold front just to our west.

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Once we get this cold front through, that will be the end of one storm system. Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’re watching another storm system working across Arizona and New Mexico. That’s the one that could make things interesting for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

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For tonight and Wednesday, we’ll focus on the cold front ready to push in periods of light to moderate rain our way from the west. While we’ve been watching a few showers develop across southeastern Kansas this evening, the better chances for rain start to return in our western counties first as we head closer to the midnight hour. We’ll have temperatures starting to drop back into the middle to upper 40s at this point before we head into the rest of the overnight.

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As start to head toward 6 AM Wednesday, we’ll have temperatures in the upper 30s around the Joplin area and the I-44 corridor. Behind the passing front, we’ll have temperatures at the surface in the middle 30s to the northwest of Joplin. With some pockets of colder air aloft and additional dynamics coming into play, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some wintry precipitation try to mix in as the AM drive gets underway.

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As temperatures continue to drop into the middle 30s by lunchtime with colder air aloft, we’ll see our rain chances start to mix in with some snow.

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As we work into the rest of the afternoon, we’ll see our chances for rain and snow start to dissipate as the cold front continues its march to the east. However, we’ll plan on staying mostly cloudy and cold with temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.

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While we do plan on seeing some snow chances mixing in as this batch of moisture works on through, don’t plan on this being a big snow event. Since we don’t see any big bands of heavy snow on the horizon and with some warmth for this snow to fight, we’re keeping any expected snow accumulations very minor. If anything tried to accumulate, it would be half an inch or less at the worst.

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Overall, this looks like another situation where we see more in the way of rain out of this batch of moisture on the way. For those that need the rain, we’re expecting rain amounts for late tonight and Wednesday to range between half an inch and an inch.

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As the departing cold front signals the end of our first storm system of the week, we’ll turn our attention to the upper low that will be working through Texas as we work into Thursday.

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Before that low tries to do anything funny for Thursday, we’ll start dry, cloudy and cold with lows in the middle to upper 20s.

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Even though the low will be working across the state of Texas throughout the day, it’ll be a strong low that will start to send moisture back our way during the afternoon. As highs top out in the middle to upper 30s, we’ll watch for returning rain/freezing rain/sleet chances as we wrap up the afternoon and head into New Year’s Eve night.

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As for New Year’s Day, the upper low looks to track right on top of the area. This track would primarily give us rain and some wintry weather while the heaviest of the wintry weather stays to our north and west. We need to watch the track of this closely, though. If it shifts back to the east, we could be looking at a completely different ball game to kick off 2021.

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For Friday, we’ll see temperatures start around 33 in the morning and briefly top out around 36. With these temperatures and quite a bit of cooling once again for the rest of the day, we’ll plan on a mix of rain, sleet and snow across the region to kick off 2021. Before the system is completely gone, we could see a few straggling snow showers for early Saturday morning. Otherwise, we’ll stay quiet for Saturday under mostly cloudy skies with highs topping out in the upper 30s. Sunday and Monday stay quiet with highs in the middle 40s on Sunday and middle 50s for Monday before another chance for rain starts to sneak in by next Tuesday.

If you’re curious as to how much of January is shaping up, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

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Next Wednesday-Saturday:  After our storm system starts working in with rain chances on Tuesday, we’ll see this bring rain and possible snow chances for Wednesday and Thursday.  Rain chances right back in for the weekend.

January 10th-16th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances on Thursday.

January 17th-23rd:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up by mid week with slight rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

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